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Market Compass May 2021

In Short

Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team. The team of analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues. The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.

Highlights

  • Macro data area improving strongly in the US, with the Euro area lagging behind, but surveys show higher optimism.
  • The strong global rebound and higher inflation risks keep upside pressure on yields in both the US and Euro area.
  • The Fed has reiterated that it is too early to withdraw monetary support and this may reinforce inflation fears. The acceleration in bond purchases by the ECB has not stopped the rise in bund yields, while inflation remains subdued. This puts the ECB in a difficult situation.
  • However, real yields remain under control. This adds to progress on vaccination, ample liquidity and rising earning to maintain our preference for risk assets.

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Market Compass May 2021
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